Less than three weeks remain in the regular season, time to play that game within the game: projecting your team's shot in the NCAA Tournament.
This state has a legitimate chance at putting three teams in the NCAAs for the first time. Please eliminate two factors when studying your team's prospects: One, the NCAA selection committee doesn't give one drop of Gatorade to a conference's ranking or how many teams come from each conference; two, the committee has eliminated teams' records in their last 12 games, since history shows they have no bearing on teams' performances in March.
Below is a look at the five in-state teams:
Colorado State: Record (21-4), RPI (13th), vs. Top 25 RPI (1-2), vs. Top 50 (3-3), vs. Bottom 150 (6-0), away record (5-4), strength of schedule (54th).
The Rams are in the best shape of them all. They already have impressive wins against UNLV and San Diego State and only one bad loss: Illinois-Chicago but it was on the road.
CSU can lock up a bid and relieve pressure in the Mountain West Tournament when it visits UNLV (No. 20 in RPI) on Wednesday and hosts No. 16 New Mexico (No. 3 in RPI) on Saturday.
Colorado: Record (17-8), RPI (21), vs. Top 25 (2-2), vs. Top 50 (3-3), vs. Bottom 150 (7-1), away record (4-6), SOS (9).
The Buffaloes have big-time wins over Arizona and CSU and Oregon on the road, and the selection committee loves a strong strength of schedule. Winning the Charleston Classic will pay big dividends in March. The only major bobble was the slip-up at Utah.
Their lone road games left is a trip to the Bay Area and they get Oregon again at home March 7. Holding their own should earn them an at-large bid regardless of how they do in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Air Force: Record (15-9), RPI (69), vs. Top 25 (1-6), vs. Top 50 (3-7), vs. Bottom 150 (8-0), away record (3-6), SOS (67).
Its lone impressive wins were over San
Diego State and UNLV so any hope for an at-large berth will come down to four days in March: at San Diego State on March 6 and New Mexico on March 9.Denver: Record (17-8), RPI (92), vs. Top 25 (0-1), vs. Top 50 (0-2), vs. Bottom 150 (14-0), away record (7-6), SOS (190).
It's taking care of business but must win the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. That means it must get past Louisiana Tech (23-3) which has won 15 in a row, including 68-60 over Denver, and finishes the regular season at Denver on March 9.
Northern Colorado: Record (9-15), RPI (282), vs. Top 25 (0-1), vs. Top 50 (0-2), vs. Bottom 150 (7-7), away record (2-11), SOS (217).
The Bears are tied for fifth in the Big Sky but no one's getting past Montana (19-5) or Weber State (19-5) in the Big Sky Tournament.
John Henderson: 303-954-1299, jhenderson@denverpost.com or twitter.com/johnhendersondp
Visit denverpost.com each weekday near noontime for a serving of dish concerning Colorado's sporting landscape from a Denver Post sports writer. Care for another helping? Visit the Lunch Special archive.
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