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Thursday, January 31, 2013
Japan PM shrugs off global criticism over latest stimulus steps
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe waded into the growing global debate about currency wars for the first time on Wednesday, shrugging off criticism that Tokyo was trying to intentionally weaken the yen with its monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.
"The measures taken by the government and the BOJ are aimed at beating deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth," Abe said, when asked by an opposition party leader in parliament about criticism from some overseas policymakers that the steps were attempts by Tokyo to directly weaken the yen.
It was his first public comment on the issue.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week singled out Japan as a source of concern following recent moves by its central bank to quicken the pace of money-printing.
South Korea has also been vocal in recent days, with the governor of the central bank saying on Saturday that Japan's latest monetary easing had "created problems.
Talk about a currency war dominated discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, with many central bankers and business executives questioning the wisdom of continuing easy money policy.
Central bankers in advanced countries, notably Japan and the United States, have been pursuing aggressive action to reflate their economies. This has had the effect of weakening their currencies, prompting investors to move a wall of cash into more attractive markets such as South Korea and forcing their currencies higher, making their financial markets more volatile and threatening their export competitiveness.
Abe also kept up pressure on Bank of Japan to expand monetary stimulus, calling for bold measures to achieve its new 2 percent inflation target.
"I strongly hope that the Bank of Japan pursues bold monetary easing to achieve (2 percent inflation) as soon as possible," he told parliament.
Under pressure from Abe for more aggressive efforts to beat deflation, the central bank last week doubled its inflation target to 2 percent and made an open-ended commitment to buy assets from next year.
In a meeting of the government's top economic panel held two days after the BOJ's rate review, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa suggested that the bank may increase asset purchases even further to inject funds into the economy.
As part of his plans to revive the economy, Abe has also pledged big fiscal spending that led to his government compiling a 10.3 trillion yen ($114 billion) extra stimulus package.
But in a $1.02 trillion draft budget for the next fiscal year approved on Tuesday, the government aims to keep new bond sales below tax revenues in a symbolic move to show its resolve of continuing with efforts to fix Japan's tattered finances.
"While we need to revive Japan's economy, it's also important to restore fiscal health," Abe told parliament.
($1 = 90.6500 Japanese yen)
(Additional reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Shinichi Saoshiro & Kim Coghill)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/japan-pm-boj-steps-aimed-beating-deflation-boosting-045256859--business.html
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Red Sox games, Big Apple outings, on Nashua Parks & Rec trip ...
[unable to retrieve full-text content]The city Parks & Recreation Department has released its list of public trips lined up. ... Baseball: Overall view of Boston Red Sox players during national anthem as F-16s from the 158th Fighter Wing of the Vermont Air National Guard perform flyover before game vs Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. Boston, MA 4/13/2012. CREDIT: Damian Strohmeyer (Photo by Damian Strohmeyer /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images) (Set Number: X154660 TK1 R1 F110 ). Enlarge ...
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Smokers' lungs safe for transplant, study finds
featurepics.com
About 13 percent of double-lung transplants in the U.S. came from donors who were heavy smokers, a new study finds.
By JoNel Aleccia, Staff Writer, NBC News
Using lung transplants from heavy smokers may sound like a cruel joke, but a new study finds that organs taken from people who puffed a pack a day for more than 20 years are likely safe.
What?s more, the analysis of lung transplant data from the U.S. between 2005 and 2011 confirms what transplant experts say they already know: For some patients on a crowded organ waiting list, lungs from smokers are better than none.
?I think people are grateful just to have a shot at getting lungs,? said Dr. Sharven Taghavi, a cardiovascular surgical resident at Temple University Hospital in Philadelphia, who led the new study.
Surprisingly, however, organ recipients who do get smokers? lungs often learn about it only afterward -- if at all, experts say.
?If someone had a transplant and after the transplant they say, ?What can you tell me about the donor?' there are a limited number of characteristics we can tell them,? said Dr. Ramsey Hachem, a pulmonologist and transplant surgeon at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis. ?We don?t do that routinely before.?
About 13 percent of double-lung transplants in the U.S. came from donors with a heavy smoking history, according to Taghavi?s new study, presented Tuesday at the annual meeting of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons. He and his colleagues analyzed records of some 5,900 adult procedures in the database maintained by the United Network for Organ Sharing, or UNOS, which manages transplants in the U.S.
Typically, that meant smoking at least a pack of cigarettes a day for more than 20 years, or two packs a day for 10 years.
In the end, after all other variables were accounted for, people who got lungs from heavy smokers lived as long and as well as those who got lungs from the tobacco-free, Taghavi found. There was no significant difference in cancers, though the study didn?t specifically look at lung cancer.
?General guidelines say that donors that have smoked should be excluded, but there are certain circumstances in which they can be used,? Taghavi said. ?That can be when the donors are otherwise very healthy and there?s no evidence of the really bad effects of smoking, like emphysema.?
Only about 20 percent of smokers actually develop the worst effects of smoking, noted Hachem.
?It is certainly counterintuitive to say we?re going to use lungs from a donor with a smoking history, but the majority of people who smoke do not have lung disease,? said Hachem, who was not involved in the study.
Some people may have smoked for a long time years ago, then stopped, vastly improving the health of the organs. Others could have been active smokers when they died. The data in the study didn?t include that history, Taghavi said.
Freeing up smokers? lungs could help reduce a shortage that has left more than 1,650 people on the transplant waiting list -- the ?last resort? for those with end-stage lung disease, according to the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute. There were nearly 5,200 liver transplants in the U.S. in 2012, but typically only half the people on the list receive lung transplants in a given year, the NHLBI said.?
Taghavi emphasized that transplant recipients who get lungs from heavy smokers ought to be told in advance.
?This is a very important point,? he said. ?None of this should be done without a thorough discussion with the recipient. They have to be aware that there are risks with accepting these lungs, but there are benefits.?
But Hachem said current practice usually doesn?t include that discussion.
Recipients decide in advance whether to take organs from high-risk donors, including those with a history of infections such as viral hepatitis or HIV. But behavior habits, such as smoking, are almost never disclosed, Hachem said.
?I don?t know what other centers do, but at our center, we don?t get into those details,? he said.
Instead, the organs are inspected carefully and only those found free of disease or disability are approved for transplant. ?We?ve sort of screened the organ pretty well,? he said.
Of course, problems can occur. Widespread media reports last year centered on Jennifer Wederell, a 27-year-old British woman with cystic fibrosis who died of lung cancer last year after receiving lungs from a heavy smoker. In 2007, the family of a New Jersey man, Tony Grier, sued the University of Pennsylvania Health System after they said Grier developed lung cancer a month after a 2005 lung transplant. Court records show the case was settled in 2010.
Such cases are very sad -- but also very rare, said Hachem, who noted that all transplants carry inherent risks. And, he said, most transplant recipients are like Randy Cooke, 52, of Chatham, Ill., who received a new set of lungs in 2011.
Cooke, who was diagnosed in 2008 with a degenerative lung disease, said that by the time he was placed on the transplant waiting list, he would have accepted lungs from a heavy smoker -- gladly.
?If I?d have waited another three months, I don?t know if I?d be here talking to you,? he said.
If his lungs had come from a smoker, Cooke trusted that his doctors would have screened out any potential problems.
?You have to take a lot of times what you can get,? he said. ?You don?t have a choice. Time is not on your side.?
?Related:
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asg: Account Executive (9 Mnoths FTC) ? London ? POS
Position: Account Executive (9 Mnoths FTC) ? London ? POS
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Source: http://jobs.printweek.com/job/337851/account-executive-9-mnoths-ftc-london-pos/?TrackID=3
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Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Green Deal loans scheme to launch
28 January 2013
Last updated at 06:53 ET
Householders are to be offered long-term loans to help make their homes more energy efficient and cut bills under a new government scheme.
Ministers said the Green Deal, which operates in England and Wales, will help thousands "stay warm for less".
Under the scheme, households can use loans to spend on energy-saving improvements, such as insulation and new boilers, with no upfront cost.
Campaigners said the project would "not stop fuel poverty rocketing".
How it worksThe move to insulate the UK's aged housing stock is designed to save carbon emissions, keep people warm, and make energy affordable.
Continue reading the main story?Start Quote
End Quote Paul Reeve Electrical Contractors' AssociationPeople who've taken on the Green Deal will generally feel a lot better off?
Homeowners will first be visited by an assessor, who will ask some basic questions about their energy usage.
Approved Green Deal installers, such as energy companies or DIY chains, will then advise on potential improvements, such as double-glazing, insulation or new heating systems.
Consumers will pay for the improvements by taking out a loan with the Green Deal Finance Company, a non-profit making organisation backed by the government.
Such loans will be paid back through electricity bills for periods of up to 25 years.
There is no guarantee that the eventual savings made by consumers will match the cost of the loans they take out to make the improvements.
"However, there's a good chance that you will make savings," said Paul Reeve, of the Electrical Contractors' Association.
The costsConsumers taking out Green Deal loans will have to repay them at a maximum rate of 6.92%, according to the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Compared to a standard home loan rate, that is relatively high.
On top of the loan, householders will have to pay a ?63 set-up charge, and a ?20 a year annual fee.
On a loan of ?5,000, the overall rate that is repayable is just under 8% over 10 years, or 7.7% over 25 years.
The government argues that such rates are comparable to the best High Street rates for long-term unsecured loans.
The amount that anyone can borrow will be capped at ?10,000.
Moving onMr Reeve said it was possible, but unlikely, that consumers could end up out of pocket.
"Many of us believe that energy prices will continue to rise over the coming years. If that's true, people who've taken on the Green Deal will generally feel a lot better off," he explained.
Continue reading the main story?Start Quote
End Quote Ed Matthews Energy Bill RevolutionWe call on the prime minister to use money from the carbon tax to super-insulate this country's homes?
Should householders sell their home, the loan will need to be taken on by any new homeowner.
Mark Bayley, the chief executive of the newly created Green Deal Finance Company, said: "What makes it work is that the experience of energy companies is that people's default rate is very much lower than the experience in consumer credit and that's how we're able to construct very long term, low cost financing."
"And as people move house the loans they take out under Green Deal plan stay behind with their electricity meter."
If householders transfer to a different electricity provider, the loan will transfer at the same time.
Consumers are allowed to pay the loans off early, but a fee might apply.
More needed?Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said: "The Green Deal will help thousands of homes stay warm for less. Those people will benefit from energy saving improvements - and their energy bills will fall."
However, campaigners have warned that the new scheme does not go far enough.
Ed Matthews, head of fuel poverty campaign group Energy Bill Revolution, said: "The Green Deal and Energy Company Obligation will not stop fuel poverty rocketing in the face of high gas prices."
"We call on the prime minister to use money from the carbon tax to super-insulate this country's homes.
According to Groundwork UK, which has been working on the scheme, potential energy savings can be worth up to ?300 a year.
"For relatively low expenditure, you can make a big difference to the cost of your fuel bill," says Sir Tony Hawkhead of Groundwork.
He estimates that typical average savings on a small house can be ?120 a year, rising to ?270 for a three or four bedroom house, "or possibly higher than that".
But he acknowledges that in some cases, the cost of the loan could be more expensive than the savings gained.
"Obviously the cost of installing the energy efficiency measures, such as a new boiler or dealing with solid walls, can be higher."
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21226042#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa
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Director of Campus Recreation - HigherEdJobs
Company Description:
Bellarmine University is a dynamic, growing university with a strong liberal arts focus in the Catholic tradition and a bold vision for the future. By 2020, Bellarmine intends to significantly increase undergraduate and graduate enrollment (currently approximately 3,400 students) and add several new graduate programs, while maintaining small class sizes and personal attention to students. Bellarmine is a top university in Forbes' list of America's best colleges, is listed in the Princeton Review's 373 Best Colleges, and is ranked 11th among Southern universities in the 2013 U.S. News and World Report. Bellarmine is located on a scenic 144-acre campus in the Highlands neighborhood of Louisville, KY, which was named one of the Top 10 "Best Cities for Families" by Parenting Magazine.
Job Description:
The primary functions of the Director of Campus Recreation are to help support the goals of the department and division by serving as the Director of the Department of Sport, Recreation, and Fitness (SuRF). This includes administrative management, coordination of initiatives, supervision of students, assistant director, interns and part-time staff, facilities management, and internal/external customer relations. Use judgment and discretion for problem solving and managing a complex, dynamic facility containing six outdoor tennis courts, three indoor tennis courts, two basketball/volleyball courts, a fitness area including cardiovascular equipment, weight machines and free weights.
Essential Responsibilities
- Responsible for overall management, philosophy, vision, assessment, and strategic planning for the campus recreation center.
- Supervise the Assistant Director for Intramural and Club Sports, approximately 20 student employees, a graduate intern, and part-time staff including selection, training, scheduling and evaluation in addition to tracking payroll.
- Collaborate with students and other campus stakeholders to implement recreation and wellness programs to increase student, faculty, and staff recreation involvement in addition to emphasizing employee and student wellness.
- Coordinate group fitness classes, personal training, and personal training education including program scheduling and promotion.
- Supervise facility maintenance including management of maintenance contracts for facility and equipment; submit and monitor completion of work requests to University Facilities Department as needed and coordination of cleaning and equipment repairs.
- Manage alumni and other fitness center memberships and maintain data bases.
- Administer the SuRF budgets including oversight of all purchasing and inventory maintenance.
- Marketing campus recreation initiatives within the University community through social media outlets and Web page maintenance.
- Oversee facility schedule and reservations for intramurals, athletic teams, campus groups, camps, special events and rentals.
- Offer logistical support to campus groups and departments utilizing facility for special events.
- Actively work with student committees to develop and implement student programs as well as determine student needs.
- Work with information services to maintain membership ID system for recreation center members and accurately evaluate facility usage.
- Manage parking permits and ensure parking information is accurately documented in CARS.
- Provide on-site emergency response as needed.
- All other duties as assigned.
Requirements:
Applicants must have a master's degree in exercise science, health promotion, campus recreation or a related field. A minimum of two years experience working in campus recreation is required. A solid knowledge of college recreation, college student fitness, and the innerworkings of a campus recreation center is necessary, as is a passion for collaborating with college-aged students and a genuine interest in helping others reach their fitness goals. Strong interpersonal skills and effective communication skills are necessary to this position.
Additional Information:
Bellarmine is an equal opportunity employer. Persons of diverse backgrounds are encouraged to apply.
Application Instructions:
Interested applicants should submit a letter of interest, resume, and contact information for 3 professional references by clicking on the link contained in this posting. Applications are being accepted and review will begin immediately and continue until the position is filled.
Bellarmine is a EEO/AA employer and encourages women and minorities to apply.
Source: http://www.higheredjobs.com/details.cfm?JobCode=175713924
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AGU Journal Highlights -- Jan. 28, 2013
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Public release date: 28-Jan-2013[ | E-mail |
Share ] Contact: Kate Ramsayer
kramsayer@agu.org
202-777-7524
American Geophysical Union
The following highlights summarize research papers that have been recently published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Water Resources Research, Journal of Geophysical Research Planets (JGR-E), Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (JGR-C), and Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences (JGR-G).
In this release:
1. Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's magnetospheric activity
2. Projected U.S. water use likely to increase as climate warms
3. Mercury's crust likely made of magnesium-rich basalt
4. Assessing the Great Whirl, despite all the pirates
5. Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
6. Low density of Earth's core due to oxygen and silicon impurities
7. Understanding the structure of subducting plates
Anyone may read the scientific abstract for any already-published paper by clicking on the link provided at the end of each Highlight. You can also read the abstract by going to http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ and inserting into the search engine the full doi (digital object identifier), e.g. 10.1002/grl.50095. The doi is found at the end of each Highlight below.
Journalists and public information officers (PIOs) at educational or scientific institutions who are registered with AGU also may download papers cited in this release by clicking on the links below.
**Please note** AGU has recently partnered with Wiley, which will now publish AGU's journals. Registered reporters should have received an email from Wiley the week of 7 January with a new login and password, which will allow them to access journal articles for free through the Wiley Online Library at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/. If you are a reporter and have not yet registered for a complimentary press subscription, please fill out the form at http://sites.agu.org/sciencepolicy/agu-press-subscriptions/.
1. Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's magnetospheric activity
Jupiter's volcanic moon Io spews out volcanic gas, which reaches its atmosphere and becomes ionized, forming what is known as the Io plasma torus. This plasma torus can interact with Jupiter's magnetosphere, possibly affecting auroral activity there. To help determine whether Io's volcanic activity affects Jupiter's magnetosphere, Yoneda et al. analyzed ground-based observations of Jupiter's sodium nebula, which provides an indication of Io's volcanic activity and plasma content in the Io plasma torus, along with satellite-based measurements of radio emission called HOM emission, which is a sign of Jupiter's auroral activity.
They observe that Jupiter's sodium nebula was enhanced in late May through early June 2007, indicating that Io's volcanic activity increased during that period. The researchers observe that shortly after this enhancement began, Jupiter's HOM emission intensity decreased. As a result, the authors conclude that increased volcanic activity on Io lessens auroral activity in Jupiter's magnetosphere.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/grl.50095, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50095/abstract
Title: Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's radio emissions
Authors: M. Yoneda, F. Tsuchiya, H. Misawa, M. Kagitani, and S. Okano: Planetary Plasma and Atmospheric Research Center, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai city, Miyagi prefecture, Japan;
B. Bonfond: Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphrique et Plantaire, Universit de Lige, Lige, Belgium;
C. Tao: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo ward, Sagamihara city, Kanagawa prefecture, Japan.
2. Projected U.S. water use likely to increase as climate warms
Despite increases in efficiency, water demand in the United States is likely to increase substantially in the future if climate continues to warm, new projections indicate. Brown et al. project future water use to 2090 based on past trends from U.S. Geological Survey water use data from 1960 to 2005 and trends in efficiency. They project U.S. water demand under climate change scenarios using three different global circulation models; they ran each model for three different global socioeconomic scenarios adapted from the scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
They project that with no climate change, because of increasing efficiency, water demand in the United States over the next 50 years would stay within 3 percent of current demand, even with an expected 50 percent increase in population. The projections varied between the different climate models and emissions scenarios, but most show that if there is climate warming, projected water demand would rise substantially. This increased demand would be due mainly to increases in the need for water for irrigation as rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration. Electricity generation for additional air conditioning as temperatures rise would also contribute to increased water demand, though to a much lesser extent. The authors caution that projected increased demand under climate warming may lead to unsustainable water use even if available water supplies do not diminish as climate warms.
Source: Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20076, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wrcr.20076/abstract
Title: Projected freshwater withdrawals in the United States under a changing climate
Authors: Thomas C. Brown: Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA;
Romano Foti: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA;
Jorge A. Ramirez: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
3. Mercury's crust likely made of magnesium-rich basalt
With both x-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers, the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry and Ranging probe (MESSENGER), which entered orbit around Mercury in 2011, is well equipped for carrying out a detailed compositional analysis of Mercury's crust, the understanding of which could help determine the nature of the planet's formation, and of its volcanic past.
Using spectrometric measurements and laboratory analyses of Mercury surface-analogue samples, Stockstill-Cahill et al. determine that the upper layers of Mercury's crust most closely resemble magnesian basalt terrestrial rocks, though with lower iron concentrations. To make their determination, the authors used a software package known as MELTS to simulate the cooling and crystallization of potential Mercurian lavas with different chemical compositions, estimating the temperatures at which minerals would crystallize out of the molten lava and the abundances of different mineral species. Similarly, the authors simulated the cooling of magnesium-rich terrestrial rocks and of meteoritic samples.
Based on their chemical compositional analysis, the authors infer a number of properties for an early lava on Mercury. They suggest that the lava would have had a very low viscosity, streaming across the surface in widespread but thin layers. Further, they calculate that the temperatures required to produce the magnesium-rich lava would have been much higher than for terrestrial rocks not enriched in magnesium. The authors say that the low-viscosity lava would leave tell-tale marks on the planet's surface that could be identified through further MESSENGER observations.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets, doi: 10.1029/2012JE004140, 2012 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JE004140/abstract
Title: Magnesium-rich crustal compositions on Mercury: Implications for magmatism from petrologic modeling
Authors: Karen R. Stockstill-Cahill and Timothy J. McCoy: Department of Mineral Sciences, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, District of Columbia, USA;
Larry R. Nittler and Shoshana Z. Weider: Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, District of Columbia, USA;
Steven A. Hauck, II: Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
4. Assessing the Great Whirl, despite all the pirates
Each year, the powerful southwest monsoon ramps up in midsummer, bringing life-giving rains to the Indian subcontinent. The monsoon winds also drive dramatic changes in the regional ocean currents, including a reversal in the circulation of the Arabian Sea, an energetic eddy field, and strong coastal upwelling. Off the east coast of Somalia, a large (300 to 550 kilometer wide, or 186 to 342 mile wide) anticyclone appearsknown since 1876 as the Great Whirlwith surface currents as strong as 2.5 meters per second (8.2 feet per second). The Great Whirl, while associated with the seasonal arrival of the southwest monsoon, is not caused entirely by it; the circulation of the Great Whirl starts a month before, and persists for a month after, the monsoon.
Although the existence of the Great Whirl has been known for more than a century, rampant piracy in the waters off Somalia has prevented researchers from directly observing its behavior using modern oceanographic tools and techniques. To get around this limitation, Beal and Donohue used satellite observations of sea surface height to measure the intraseasonal evolution and interannual variation of the powerful anticyclone. The satellite altimetry measurements, collected from 1993 to 2010, supplemented measurements made during five research cruises conducted in 1995.
The authors find that the Great Whirl persists for roughly 166 days each year, initiating around May, strengthening and intensifying with the June arrival of the monsoon, and dissipating by November. They find that the Great Whirl is often ringed by smaller anticyclones that travel clockwise around its outside edge. Further, they find that rather than evolving gradually over the summer season, the anticyclone's size and shape can vary quickly.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2012JC008198, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JC008198/abstract
Title: The Great Whirl: Observations of its seasonal development and interannual variability
Authors: L. M. Beal: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, USA;
K. A. Donohue: Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narrangansett, USA.
5. Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
Tracking the origin of driftwood samples could help scientists to reconstruct past currents in the Arctic Ocean, a new study suggests. Arctic currents are likely to be affected by changing climate, but there are few observations that provide evidence on past current dynamics.
To evaluate the potential use of driftwood samples, Hellmann et al. analyzed 1445 driftwood remains collected in east Greenland and Svalbard, the largest compilation of Arctic driftwood samples so far compiled and analyzed. They were able to characterize four coniferous genera (Pinus, Larix, Picea, and Abies) and three deciduous genera (Populus, Salix, and Betula). At the species level, they distinguish two species of pine, which accounted for 40 percent of their samples. The pine originated mainly from western and central Siberia. Larch and spruce samples, which represented 26 percent and 18 percent, respectively, could have originated from either Siberia or North America, the authors report. They note that in addition to helping to reconstruct past currents, analysis of driftwood samples can help scientists to evaluate past environmental conditions during the sample tree's life span.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, doi: 10.1002/jgrg.20022, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20022/abstract
Title: Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
Authors: Lena Hellmann: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland;
Willy Tegel: Institute for Forest Growth IWW, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;
lafur Eggertsson: Iceland Forest Service, Reykjavik, Iceland;
Fritz Hans Schweingruber: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland and Institute for Forest Growth IWW, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;
Robert Blanchette: University of Minnesota, Department of Plant Pathology, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA;
Alexander Kirdyanov: V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia;
Holger Grtner: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
Ulf Bntgen: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland.
6. Low density of Earth's core due to oxygen and silicon impurities
During accretion and differentiation of the Earth, chemical interactions in a silicate magma ocean and liquid iron drove silicon and oxygen impurities into what went on to become the liquid outer core. Contrasting with previous research, which suggested that silicon and oxygen would only appear in very low concentrations (less than 1 percent by weight) in the liquid iron, Tsuno et al. find that at the base of a magma ocean 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) deep, these light elements could reach concentrations as high as 5 percent oxygen and 8 percent silicon by weight, simultaneously. Such impurity levels would decrease the density of the outer core, accounting for the so-called "density deficit" identified in previous research, whereby the outer core is roughly 10 percent less dense than a pure iron-nickel alloy.
The researchers also propose that at the present-day core-mantle boundary, high temperatures would drive additional silicon and oxygen into the core, creating a light, element-rich, buoyant layer on the top of the liquid outer core. They suggest that evidence for such a layer may have been observed in seismic studies.
Using a multianvil press, the authors drove a mixture of iron, magnesium silicate, silicon dioxide, and the iron oxide wstite to 25 gigapascals (6.2 million pounds per square inch) of pressure and temperatures from 2,700 to 3,080 Kelvin (4,400 to 5,084 degrees Fahrenheit). They find that at temperatures below 3,000 Kelvin (4,940 degrees Fahrenheit), silicon and oxygen in the iron melt were mutually exclusive, with concentrations not rising above the low levels identified in previous research. Above 3,000 Kelvin (4,940 degrees Fahrenheit), however, they find that the presence of oxygen actually enhanced the partitioning of silicon into the iron, with the concentrations of both silicon and oxygen increasing.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054116, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054116/abstract
Title: Simultaneous partitioning of silicon and oxygen into the Earth's core during early Earth differentiation
Authors: Kyusei Tsuno: Bayerisches Geoinstitut, Universitt Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany and Department of Earth Science, Rice University, Houston, Texas, USA;
Daniel J Frost and David C Rubie: Bayerisches Geoinstitut, Universitt Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
7. Understanding the structure of subducting plates
Seismic studies are helping scientists learn more about the structure of subducting oceanic plates. Using an airgun array and 80 ocean bottom seismometers spaced along a 500 kilometer (310 mile) profile, Fujie et al. conducted a seismic reflection and refraction survey at the Kuril trench in the northwestern Pacific margin, where part of the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate. They estimate the water content of the subducting plate by measuring the velocity of seismic wavesboth P waves and S wavesthrough the plate. The V sub p over V sub s ratio is an indicator of the lithology, porosity, and presence of fluid in the plate. Their findings show that the water content in the plate increased toward the trench, along with greater bending and fracturing, suggesting that water enters the plate through the fractures. The authors conclude that the bending and fracturing of the plate as it subducts plays an important role in the water cycle in subduction zones.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054340, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054340/abstract
Title: Systematic changes in the incoming plate structure at the Kuril trench
Authors: Gou Fujie, Shuichi Kodaira, Mikiya Yamashita, Takeshi Sato, Tsutomu Takahashi, and Narumi Takahashi: IFREE/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
###
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Phone (direct): +1 202 777 7524
E-mail: kramsayer@agu.org
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Public release date: 28-Jan-2013[ | E-mail |
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American Geophysical Union
The following highlights summarize research papers that have been recently published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Water Resources Research, Journal of Geophysical Research Planets (JGR-E), Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (JGR-C), and Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences (JGR-G).
In this release:
1. Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's magnetospheric activity
2. Projected U.S. water use likely to increase as climate warms
3. Mercury's crust likely made of magnesium-rich basalt
4. Assessing the Great Whirl, despite all the pirates
5. Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
6. Low density of Earth's core due to oxygen and silicon impurities
7. Understanding the structure of subducting plates
Anyone may read the scientific abstract for any already-published paper by clicking on the link provided at the end of each Highlight. You can also read the abstract by going to http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ and inserting into the search engine the full doi (digital object identifier), e.g. 10.1002/grl.50095. The doi is found at the end of each Highlight below.
Journalists and public information officers (PIOs) at educational or scientific institutions who are registered with AGU also may download papers cited in this release by clicking on the links below.
**Please note** AGU has recently partnered with Wiley, which will now publish AGU's journals. Registered reporters should have received an email from Wiley the week of 7 January with a new login and password, which will allow them to access journal articles for free through the Wiley Online Library at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/. If you are a reporter and have not yet registered for a complimentary press subscription, please fill out the form at http://sites.agu.org/sciencepolicy/agu-press-subscriptions/.
1. Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's magnetospheric activity
Jupiter's volcanic moon Io spews out volcanic gas, which reaches its atmosphere and becomes ionized, forming what is known as the Io plasma torus. This plasma torus can interact with Jupiter's magnetosphere, possibly affecting auroral activity there. To help determine whether Io's volcanic activity affects Jupiter's magnetosphere, Yoneda et al. analyzed ground-based observations of Jupiter's sodium nebula, which provides an indication of Io's volcanic activity and plasma content in the Io plasma torus, along with satellite-based measurements of radio emission called HOM emission, which is a sign of Jupiter's auroral activity.
They observe that Jupiter's sodium nebula was enhanced in late May through early June 2007, indicating that Io's volcanic activity increased during that period. The researchers observe that shortly after this enhancement began, Jupiter's HOM emission intensity decreased. As a result, the authors conclude that increased volcanic activity on Io lessens auroral activity in Jupiter's magnetosphere.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/grl.50095, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50095/abstract
Title: Io's volcanism controls Jupiter's radio emissions
Authors: M. Yoneda, F. Tsuchiya, H. Misawa, M. Kagitani, and S. Okano: Planetary Plasma and Atmospheric Research Center, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai city, Miyagi prefecture, Japan;
B. Bonfond: Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphrique et Plantaire, Universit de Lige, Lige, Belgium;
C. Tao: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo ward, Sagamihara city, Kanagawa prefecture, Japan.
2. Projected U.S. water use likely to increase as climate warms
Despite increases in efficiency, water demand in the United States is likely to increase substantially in the future if climate continues to warm, new projections indicate. Brown et al. project future water use to 2090 based on past trends from U.S. Geological Survey water use data from 1960 to 2005 and trends in efficiency. They project U.S. water demand under climate change scenarios using three different global circulation models; they ran each model for three different global socioeconomic scenarios adapted from the scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
They project that with no climate change, because of increasing efficiency, water demand in the United States over the next 50 years would stay within 3 percent of current demand, even with an expected 50 percent increase in population. The projections varied between the different climate models and emissions scenarios, but most show that if there is climate warming, projected water demand would rise substantially. This increased demand would be due mainly to increases in the need for water for irrigation as rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration. Electricity generation for additional air conditioning as temperatures rise would also contribute to increased water demand, though to a much lesser extent. The authors caution that projected increased demand under climate warming may lead to unsustainable water use even if available water supplies do not diminish as climate warms.
Source: Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20076, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wrcr.20076/abstract
Title: Projected freshwater withdrawals in the United States under a changing climate
Authors: Thomas C. Brown: Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA;
Romano Foti: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA;
Jorge A. Ramirez: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
3. Mercury's crust likely made of magnesium-rich basalt
With both x-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers, the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry and Ranging probe (MESSENGER), which entered orbit around Mercury in 2011, is well equipped for carrying out a detailed compositional analysis of Mercury's crust, the understanding of which could help determine the nature of the planet's formation, and of its volcanic past.
Using spectrometric measurements and laboratory analyses of Mercury surface-analogue samples, Stockstill-Cahill et al. determine that the upper layers of Mercury's crust most closely resemble magnesian basalt terrestrial rocks, though with lower iron concentrations. To make their determination, the authors used a software package known as MELTS to simulate the cooling and crystallization of potential Mercurian lavas with different chemical compositions, estimating the temperatures at which minerals would crystallize out of the molten lava and the abundances of different mineral species. Similarly, the authors simulated the cooling of magnesium-rich terrestrial rocks and of meteoritic samples.
Based on their chemical compositional analysis, the authors infer a number of properties for an early lava on Mercury. They suggest that the lava would have had a very low viscosity, streaming across the surface in widespread but thin layers. Further, they calculate that the temperatures required to produce the magnesium-rich lava would have been much higher than for terrestrial rocks not enriched in magnesium. The authors say that the low-viscosity lava would leave tell-tale marks on the planet's surface that could be identified through further MESSENGER observations.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets, doi: 10.1029/2012JE004140, 2012 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JE004140/abstract
Title: Magnesium-rich crustal compositions on Mercury: Implications for magmatism from petrologic modeling
Authors: Karen R. Stockstill-Cahill and Timothy J. McCoy: Department of Mineral Sciences, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, District of Columbia, USA;
Larry R. Nittler and Shoshana Z. Weider: Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, District of Columbia, USA;
Steven A. Hauck, II: Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
4. Assessing the Great Whirl, despite all the pirates
Each year, the powerful southwest monsoon ramps up in midsummer, bringing life-giving rains to the Indian subcontinent. The monsoon winds also drive dramatic changes in the regional ocean currents, including a reversal in the circulation of the Arabian Sea, an energetic eddy field, and strong coastal upwelling. Off the east coast of Somalia, a large (300 to 550 kilometer wide, or 186 to 342 mile wide) anticyclone appearsknown since 1876 as the Great Whirlwith surface currents as strong as 2.5 meters per second (8.2 feet per second). The Great Whirl, while associated with the seasonal arrival of the southwest monsoon, is not caused entirely by it; the circulation of the Great Whirl starts a month before, and persists for a month after, the monsoon.
Although the existence of the Great Whirl has been known for more than a century, rampant piracy in the waters off Somalia has prevented researchers from directly observing its behavior using modern oceanographic tools and techniques. To get around this limitation, Beal and Donohue used satellite observations of sea surface height to measure the intraseasonal evolution and interannual variation of the powerful anticyclone. The satellite altimetry measurements, collected from 1993 to 2010, supplemented measurements made during five research cruises conducted in 1995.
The authors find that the Great Whirl persists for roughly 166 days each year, initiating around May, strengthening and intensifying with the June arrival of the monsoon, and dissipating by November. They find that the Great Whirl is often ringed by smaller anticyclones that travel clockwise around its outside edge. Further, they find that rather than evolving gradually over the summer season, the anticyclone's size and shape can vary quickly.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2012JC008198, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JC008198/abstract
Title: The Great Whirl: Observations of its seasonal development and interannual variability
Authors: L. M. Beal: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, USA;
K. A. Donohue: Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narrangansett, USA.
5. Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
Tracking the origin of driftwood samples could help scientists to reconstruct past currents in the Arctic Ocean, a new study suggests. Arctic currents are likely to be affected by changing climate, but there are few observations that provide evidence on past current dynamics.
To evaluate the potential use of driftwood samples, Hellmann et al. analyzed 1445 driftwood remains collected in east Greenland and Svalbard, the largest compilation of Arctic driftwood samples so far compiled and analyzed. They were able to characterize four coniferous genera (Pinus, Larix, Picea, and Abies) and three deciduous genera (Populus, Salix, and Betula). At the species level, they distinguish two species of pine, which accounted for 40 percent of their samples. The pine originated mainly from western and central Siberia. Larch and spruce samples, which represented 26 percent and 18 percent, respectively, could have originated from either Siberia or North America, the authors report. They note that in addition to helping to reconstruct past currents, analysis of driftwood samples can help scientists to evaluate past environmental conditions during the sample tree's life span.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, doi: 10.1002/jgrg.20022, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20022/abstract
Title: Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood
Authors: Lena Hellmann: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland;
Willy Tegel: Institute for Forest Growth IWW, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;
lafur Eggertsson: Iceland Forest Service, Reykjavik, Iceland;
Fritz Hans Schweingruber: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland and Institute for Forest Growth IWW, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany;
Robert Blanchette: University of Minnesota, Department of Plant Pathology, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA;
Alexander Kirdyanov: V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia;
Holger Grtner: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
Ulf Bntgen: Swiss Federal Research Institute, WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland.
6. Low density of Earth's core due to oxygen and silicon impurities
During accretion and differentiation of the Earth, chemical interactions in a silicate magma ocean and liquid iron drove silicon and oxygen impurities into what went on to become the liquid outer core. Contrasting with previous research, which suggested that silicon and oxygen would only appear in very low concentrations (less than 1 percent by weight) in the liquid iron, Tsuno et al. find that at the base of a magma ocean 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) deep, these light elements could reach concentrations as high as 5 percent oxygen and 8 percent silicon by weight, simultaneously. Such impurity levels would decrease the density of the outer core, accounting for the so-called "density deficit" identified in previous research, whereby the outer core is roughly 10 percent less dense than a pure iron-nickel alloy.
The researchers also propose that at the present-day core-mantle boundary, high temperatures would drive additional silicon and oxygen into the core, creating a light, element-rich, buoyant layer on the top of the liquid outer core. They suggest that evidence for such a layer may have been observed in seismic studies.
Using a multianvil press, the authors drove a mixture of iron, magnesium silicate, silicon dioxide, and the iron oxide wstite to 25 gigapascals (6.2 million pounds per square inch) of pressure and temperatures from 2,700 to 3,080 Kelvin (4,400 to 5,084 degrees Fahrenheit). They find that at temperatures below 3,000 Kelvin (4,940 degrees Fahrenheit), silicon and oxygen in the iron melt were mutually exclusive, with concentrations not rising above the low levels identified in previous research. Above 3,000 Kelvin (4,940 degrees Fahrenheit), however, they find that the presence of oxygen actually enhanced the partitioning of silicon into the iron, with the concentrations of both silicon and oxygen increasing.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054116, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054116/abstract
Title: Simultaneous partitioning of silicon and oxygen into the Earth's core during early Earth differentiation
Authors: Kyusei Tsuno: Bayerisches Geoinstitut, Universitt Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany and Department of Earth Science, Rice University, Houston, Texas, USA;
Daniel J Frost and David C Rubie: Bayerisches Geoinstitut, Universitt Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
7. Understanding the structure of subducting plates
Seismic studies are helping scientists learn more about the structure of subducting oceanic plates. Using an airgun array and 80 ocean bottom seismometers spaced along a 500 kilometer (310 mile) profile, Fujie et al. conducted a seismic reflection and refraction survey at the Kuril trench in the northwestern Pacific margin, where part of the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate. They estimate the water content of the subducting plate by measuring the velocity of seismic wavesboth P waves and S wavesthrough the plate. The V sub p over V sub s ratio is an indicator of the lithology, porosity, and presence of fluid in the plate. Their findings show that the water content in the plate increased toward the trench, along with greater bending and fracturing, suggesting that water enters the plate through the fractures. The authors conclude that the bending and fracturing of the plate as it subducts plays an important role in the water cycle in subduction zones.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054340, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054340/abstract
Title: Systematic changes in the incoming plate structure at the Kuril trench
Authors: Gou Fujie, Shuichi Kodaira, Mikiya Yamashita, Takeshi Sato, Tsutomu Takahashi, and Narumi Takahashi: IFREE/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
###
Contact:
Kate Ramsayer
Phone (direct): +1 202 777 7524
E-mail: kramsayer@agu.org
[ | E-mail | Share ] ?
AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-01/agu-aj012813.php
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Video: Don't Fight the Fed Rally?
Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.
Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/50613832/
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DARPA Builds A 1.8-Gigapixel Camera That Can Spot Six-Inch Targets From 20,000 Feet
DARPA has released more details on the ARGUS-IS, a 1.8-gigapixel camera that will be attached to unmanned drones to spot targets as small as six inches at an altitude of 20,000 feet. The camera - which is one of the highest resolution systems in the world - can view ten square miles of terrain at a time and zoom in on targets with surprising clarity.
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/JSClZ-u3_rg/
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Social Security commissioner to leave in February
WASHINGTON (AP) ? Social Security Commissioner Michael J. Astrue says he will step down in February after completing his six-year term. Astrue's departure gives President Barack Obama the opportunity to name a new head to the federal government's largest program.
Astrue's term was marked by increasingly dire warnings about the long-term financial health of the massive retirement and disability program. Astrue also worked to reduce backlogs of people applying for disability claims.
The trustees who oversee Social Security project that the program's trust funds will run dry in 2033. At that point, Social Security will collect only enough in taxes to pay 75 percent of benefits. As commissioner, Astrue is also a trustee.
Astrue has urged Congress to shore up the program's finances but has not publicly endorsed any solutions.
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Sunday, January 27, 2013
Thinking of Personal bankruptcy? Examine These Essential ...
When you file for bankruptcy, it can not be described as a simple procedure. Different bankruptcy filing types are available, and the right one for you will depend on the kinds of debts you have and your overall financial picture. Know as much as you can before you file. The following article contains valuable information to help you make that decision.
If your earnings are higher than your expenses then filing for bankruptcy is a waste of time and money. Although bankruptcy may feel like a simple method of getting out of your large debt, it leaves a permanent mark on your credit history for up to 10 years.
Stay on top of what your attorney is doing during your personal bankruptcy. It is your money and you are entitled to know what your lawyer is doing with it. Even attorneys can make an error now and then. Just like everyone else, lawyers are human and make mistakes too.
Be sure to hire an attorney before you embark upon filing for personal bankruptcy. There are many different aspects to filing bankruptcy, and you may not understand everything there is to know. A specialized bankruptcy lawyer can ensure that you are handling your bankruptcy filing the right way.
If you will get hit hard when it comes to your taxes, don?t assume that bankruptcy will get you out of it. Some people who file pay their taxes with credit cards, then immediately file for bankruptcy on those cards. By moving the balance to a card, they believe they can get out of paying the taxes owed. Unfortunately, the bankruptcy code doesn?t allow this, so that portion of the credit card debt won?t be discharged, and they?ll be forced to pay the high interest rate that entails.
When choosing a bankruptcy lawyer, your best option is to find someone who is recommended by someone you know versus someone who you find online or in the phone book. There are a number of companies who may take advantage of your situation, so always work with someone that is trustworthy.
You must be entirely candid when it comes to declaring assets and obligations in your bankruptcy petition. All of your financial information, be it positive or negative, must be disclosed to those in charge of filing your case. They need to know it all. Being honest is both the right thing to do and, moreover, it is required by law.
Be aware of recent changes, if any, in the bankruptcy code. This area of law is in constant flux and it is imperative that you know where the law stands at the time you file for your bankruptcy. To stay up-to-date on these laws, check out your state?s government website.
Avoid paying for a consultation with the bankruptcy attorney, but do ask many questions. Most attorneys offer free initial consultations, and you should take advantage of the chance to interview multiple practitioners. Make a choice only if you have received good answers to all the questions and concerns you brought to the table. You don?t have to make your decision right after this consultation. Take your time, and schedule consultations with more than one lawyer.
After reading this article, you will know how to file a claim bankruptcy. Don?t stress about the amount of information before you. Take a few moments to ruminate upon these tips. When you think things through, you make good decisions in life.
Stock Current market Tips That Will Help save You A Bundle, Stock Marketplace Ideas And Tricks For The Keen Beginner
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Your Three Investing Opponents | The Big Picture
?Tough Year!?
We hear that around the office nearly every day ? from professional traders to money managers to even the ?most-hedged? of the hedge fund community. This year?s markets have perplexed the best of them. Each week brings another event that sets up some confusing crosscurrent: call them reversals or head fakes or bear traps or (my personal favorite) the ?fake-out break-out? ? this is a volatile, trendless market has been unkind to Wall Street pros and Main Street investors alike.
Indeed, buy & hold investors have had more ups and downs this year than your average rollercoaster. The third and fourth quarters alone had more than a dozen market swings, ranging from 5 percent to more than 20 percent. Despite all of that action, the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged year-to-date. It doesn?t take much to push portfolios into the red these days.
Three Opponents in Investing
With markets more challenging than ever, individual investors need to understand exactly whom they are going up against when they step onto the field of battle. You have three opponents to consider whenever you invest.
The first is Mr. Market himself. He is, as Benjamin Graham described him, your eternal partner in investing. He is a patient if somewhat bipolar fellow. Subject to wild mood swings, he is always willing to offer you a bid or an ask. If you are a buyer, he is a seller ? and vice versa. But do not mistake this for generosity: he is your opponent. He likes to make you look a fool. Sell him shares at a nice profit, and he happily takes their prices so much higher you are embarrassed to even mention them again. Buy something from him on the cheap, and he will show you exactly what cheap is. And perhaps most frustrating of all, Mr. Market has no ego ? he does not care about being right or wrong; he only exists to separate the rubes from their money.
Institutional Competitors
Yes, Mr. Market is a difficult opponent. But your next rivals are nearly as tough: They are everyone else buying or selling stocks.
Recall what Charles Ellis said when he was overseeing the $15-billion endowment fund at Yale University:
?Watch a pro football game, and it?s obvious the guys on the field are far faster, stronger and more willing to bear and inflict pain than you are. Surely you would say, ?I don?t want to play against those guys!?
Well, 90% of stock market volume is done by institutions, and half of that is done by the world?s 50 largest investment firms, deeply committed, vastly well prepared ? the smartest sons of bitches in the world working their tails off all day long. You know what? I don?t want to play against those guys either.?
Ellis lays out the brutal truth: investing is a rough and tumble business. It doesn?t matter where these traders work ? they may be on prop desks, mutual funds, hedge funds, or HFT shops ? they employ an array of professional staff and technological tools to give themselves a significant edge. With billions at risk, they deploy anything that gives them even a slight advantage.
These are who individuals are doing battle with. Armed only with a PC, an internet connection, and CNBC muted in the background, investors face daunting odds. They are at a tactical disadvantage, outmanned and outgunned.
We Have Met the Enemy and They Is Us
That is even before we meet your third opponent, perhaps the most difficult one to conquer of all:
You.
You are your own third opponent. And, you may be the opponent you understand the least of all three. It is more than time constraints, lack of discipline, and asymmetrical information that challenges you. The biggest disadvantage you have is that melon perched atop your 3rd opponent?s neck. It is your big ole brain, and unless you do something about it, it is going to lose all of your money for you.
See it? There. Sitting right behind your eyes and between your ears. That ?thing? you hardly pay any attention to. You just assume it knows what it?s doing, works properly, doesn?t make too many mistakes. I hate to disabuse you of those lovely notions; but no, sorry, it does not work nearly as well as you assume. At least, not when it comes to investing. The wiring is an historical remnant, hardly functional for modern living. It is overrun with desires, emotions, and blind spots. Its capacity for cognitive error is nearly endless. It was originally developed for entirely other purposes than risk assessment in capital markets. Indeed, when it comes to money, the way most investors use those 100 billion neurons or so of grey matter, they might as well not even bother using their brains at all.
Let me give you an example. Think of any year from 1990-2005. Off of the top of your head, take a guess how well your portfolio did that year. Write it down ? this is important (that big dumb brain of yours cannot be trusted to be honest with itself). Now, pull your statement from that year and calculate your gains or losses.
How?d you do? Was the reality as good as you remembered? This is a phenomenon called selective retention. When it comes to details like this, you actually remember what you want to, not what factually occurred. Try it again. Only this time, do it for this year ? 2011. Write it down.
Go pull up your YTD performance online. We?ll wait.
Well, how did you do? Not nearly as well as you imagined, right? Welcome to the human race.
This sort of error is much more commonplace than you might imagine. If we ask any group of automobile owners how good their driving skills are, about 80% will say ?Above average.? The same applies to how well we evaluate our own investing skills. Most of us think we are above average, and nearly all of us believe we are better than we actually are.
(Despite having taken numerous high-performance driving courses and spending a lot of time on various race tracks, I am only an average driver. I know this because my wife reminds me constantly.)
As it turns out, there is a simple reason for this. The worse we are at any specific skill set, the harder it is for us to evaluate our own competency at it. This is called the Dunning?Kruger effect. This precise sort of cognitive deficit means that areas we are least skilled at ? let?s use investing decisions as an example ? also means we lack the ability to identify any investing shortcomings. As it turns out, the same skill set needed to be an outstanding investor is also necessary to have ?metacognition? ? the ability to objectively evaluate one?s own abilities. (This is also true in all other professions.)
Unlike Garrison Keillor?s Lake Wobegon, where all of the children are above average, the bell curve in investing is quite damning. By definition, all investors cannot be above average. Indeed, the odds are high that, like most investors, you will underperform the broad market this year. But it is more than just this year ? ?underperformance? is not merely a 2011 phenomenon. The statistics suggest that 4 out of 5 of you underperformed last year, and the same number will underperform next year, too.
Underperformance is not a disease suffered only by retail investors ? the pros succumb as well. In fact, about 4 out of 5 mutual fund managers underperform their benchmarks every year. These managers engage in many of the same errors that Main Street investors make. They overtrade, they engage in ?groupthink,? they freeze up, some have been even known to sell in a panic. (Do any of these sound familiar to you?)
These kinds of errors seem to be hardwired in us. Humans have evolved to survive in competitive conditions. We developed instincts and survival skills, and passed those on to our descendants. The genetic makeup of our species contains all sorts of elements that were honed over millions of years to give us an edge in surviving long enough to procreate and pass our genes along to our progeny. Our automatic reactions in times of panic are a result of that development arc.
This leads to a variety of problems when it comes to investing in equities: our instincts often betray us. To do well in the capital markets requires developing skills that very often are the opposite of what our survival instincts are telling us. Our emotions compound the problem, often compelling us to make changes at the worst possible times. The panic selling at market lows and greedy chasing as we head into tops are a reflection of these factors.
The sort of grinding market we had in 2011 only exacerbates investor aggravation, and therefore increases poor decision making. Facts and logic go out the window, and thinking gets replaced with naked emotions. We get annoyed, angry, frightened, frustrated ? and that does not help returns. Indeed, our evolutionary ?flight or fight? response developed for a reason ? it helped keep us alive out on the savannah. But the adrenaline necessary to fight a Cro-Magnon or flee from a sabre-toothed tiger does not help us in the capital markets. Indeed, study after study suggests our own wetware works against us; the emotions that helped keep us alive on the plains now hinder our investment performance.
The problem, as it turns out, lies primarily in those large mammalian brains of ours. Our wiring evolved for a specific set of survival challenges, most of which no longer exist. We have cognitive deficits that are by-products of that. Much of our decision making comes with cognitive errors ?secretly? built in. We are often unaware we even have these (for lack of a better word) defects. These cognitive foibles are one of the main reasons that, when it comes to investing, we humans just ain?t built for it.
We Are Tool Makers
But we are not helpless. These large mammalian brains of ours can do a whole lot more than merely overreact to stimulus. We think up new ideas, ponder new tools, and create new technologies. Indeed, our ability to innovate is one of the factors that separates us from the rest of the animal kingdom.
As investors, we can use our big brains to compensate for our known limitations. This means creating tools to help us make better decisions. When battling Mr. Market ? as tough as any Cro-Magnon or sabre-toothed tiger ? it helps to be able to make informed decisions coolly and objectively. If we can manage our emotions and prevent them from causing us to make decisions out of panic or greed, then our investing results will improve dramatically.
So stop being your own third opponent. Jiu jitsu yourself, and learn how to outwit your evolutionary legacy. Use that big ole melon for a change. You just might see some improvement in your portfolio performance.
Individual Investors Have Certain Advantages Over Institutions
One final thought. Smaller investors do not realize that they possess quite a few strategic advantages ? if only they would take advantage of them. Consider these small-investor pluses:
? No benchmark to meet quarterly (or monthly), so you can have longer-term time horizons and different goals;
? You can enter or exit a position without impacting markets;
? There is no public scrutiny of your holdings and no disclosures required, so you don?t have to worry about someone taking your ideas;
? You don?t have to limit yourself to just the largest stocks or worry about position size (this is huge);
? Cost structure, fees, and taxes are within your control;
? You can reverse errors without professional consequences ? you don?t get fired for admitting a mistake;
? You can have longer-term time horizons and different goals;
And with those thoughts, good luck and good trading in 2012!
~~~
This was originally published as part of a longer piece in?Thoughts from the Frontline exactly one year ago, on January 25, 2012.
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Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/your-three-investing-opponents-2/
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Saturday, January 26, 2013
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